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趋势 | 世界顶尖数据科学家看未来十年大数据发展（附英文原文）
2016-06-13
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过去，科学家经过十年的研究才首次破解人类DNA。而13年后的今天，这项工作在24小时之内就能完成。


一直以来，我们都在不断改进数据处理工具。数据数量也在过去十年间爆炸式增长。那么，还有创新的空间吗？未来还会给我们新颖的启示，还会令人瞠目吗？

在这一点上，我们无须再猜。

让我们来看看，数据科学界的顶尖大师们是如何看待未来十年大数据发展的，他们又对大数据未来如何改变世界作何猜想。

【简单化是新潮流】

首先，数据分析将变得更加“傻瓜式”。商业数据分析工具将不再对编程能力提出要求。不论是应用还是研发，都会变得非常简单。

证据何在？

微软近期公布了Power BI的新工具。Salesforce公司也推出了一款商业分析应用程序生成器。这两家公司都为非研发人员改进了他们的大数据管理平台。

【能用大数据这颗水晶球算命吗？】

“未来十年，数据驱动研究将会经历一场大变革，宣布‘理论的终结。”
——微软分析师Duncan Watts

资料收集数量将翻倍增长。如此一来，事件预测将变得更加准确。

大数据和商业智能将被继续用于预测一切。我说的是“一切”：从疾病的爆发到股票的价格；从电网的瘫痪到即将到来的流行趋势。

我们对未来的预测将会前所未有的精确！举例来说，美国联合包裹服务公司（UPS）已经能够运用置于卡车关键部位上的传感器发回的数据，通过这种方式，他们就能预测机械故障，每年给这家公司节省了数百万美元。

现在连天气预报也变得可信起来啦！生活在这个时代真棒！

谷歌公司早已开始了预报“实验”。他们按照地点分析了搜索关键词，预测出美国哪些地区将会爆发流感高峰。他们的预测被证明是准确无误的！

我们还应该特别关注印第安纳大学的一项实验，他们预测三天内的股价变化，也有87%的正确率。所有的数据全都基于推特！

“大数据市场将以每年23%的惊人速度增长，美国商业每年将节省六千亿美元。”

——互联网数据中心专家

【实时数据分析将成为必需品】

“流系统和实时数据分析将成为各行各业的‘必需品。”

——DataTorrent公司总裁Phu Hoang

Spare5的马特·本克和MongoDB的凯利·斯德曼认为，公司和企业将要结合像Storm、Spark、Apache Kafka各种流分析工具来管理他们的数据基础设施。而“数据武士”将成为劳动力市场上炙手可热的雇员。

JavaScript马上就会垄断大数据可视化。虽然现在我们很大程度上依赖R语言和Python，但是随着对简单化和网络可用性需求的增大，这种情况很快就会得到改变。

DataScience公司的简·斯旺森已经指出，将会有越来越多的开源项目用网络语言开发。那么，大数据科学就会适应JavaScript。

【人工智能将会拥有思考能力】

“大数据会在AI技术方面带来新改变。”

——IBM，甲骨文公司和谷歌匿名科学家观点

科学家们认为，基于软件的智能机器、虚拟个人助理、智能顾问和自动驾驶汽车将在未来得到大规模推广。

由于不断的学习，现在Siri、Cortana语音助手和谷歌都变得更加智能。你使用它们越多，它们就越懂你，包括你的爱好、愿望和偏好。

请思考以下几件事：

1.丰田在AI五年研发项目的投入高达十亿美元

2.通用汽车将投资五亿美元开发自动驾驶汽车

3.谷歌、优步、苹果和特斯拉都提出创新

未来常见的数据处理任务将依靠于：

1.机器学习

2.特性曲线图

3.自然语言处理

4.量子计算

5.跨公司客户数据交换

“企业将能融合全球范围内的客户数据，节省数十亿美元并提高投资回报率。”

——Jeff Vance

企业和创业公司都将从数据交流中获益。随着公司在其本身环境中的发展，公司间的“数据共享”正在成形。

举例来说，IBM已经把当地气候数据和来自太平洋瓦电公司、本田公司的数据结合起来。如此一来，他们就能准确找到汽车充电点的最佳位置。

Inrix公司将收集数据和汽车移动数据结合起来，预测交通拥堵的发生。

所有大型移动运营商都把定位数据卖给了AirSage公司。由此，该公司可以给一百多个美国城市提供实时交通报告。

【你的牙刷知道的太多了】

“全球数据化时代就要到来，并把市场技术推向全新水平！”

——分析师Viktor Mayer-Schonberger和Kenneth Cukier

数百万人的一举一动都会被公司收集，并进入交易市场。这就是新的行为广告方式。

我们让这一方式变得简单。每天我们都通过推特和facebook分享动态，在亚马逊上留下心愿单，手机里都有定位应用。如果浪费这些大数据，才真是暴殄天物。

美国一些州使用智能仪表来实时监控耗电量。有了这些数据，很容易就能重现你的行为和家庭活动，因为每一个电器都有不同的功率信号。

苹果现在已经有技术能够监测你的体温、心率和血氧浓度，只需通过像耳塞一样简单的设备就能完成。

GreenGoose是家居用品制造创业公司，他们在产品中植入微型无线传感器。每次你刷牙、用牙线剔牙或是锻炼的时候，这些微型间谍就会收集有用数据。

好吧，这听起来确实有点瘆得慌。

这合法吗？事实上，人们自愿出钱购买被追踪的“特权”。上面提到的这家公司已经在VentureBeat大会上筹集了十万美元的投资。

“不管是大型供应商还是政府，为了他们的利益，他们就能使用你的数据，而且他们也一定会这么做。”

——Noah Chomsky教授

很多供应商在你自己还没有反应过来之前就知道你下一步要干什么了。他们也会准备好相应的服务。

你可能会认为，那是非常理想化的。但是对于大多数持怀疑论者来说，就大不一样了。

很显然，Target公司已经通过客户的购买物品计算出有哪些女性客户怀孕了。然后他们就会给这些客户提供优惠券作为祝贺。在一个案例中，一个父亲甚至也是通过这种方式才知道自己女儿怀孕了。

“到十年之后，会有将近一半违反商业道德的行为是与数据相关。”

——Gartner咨询公司分析师

这导致新的流行趋势——用户隐私和数据保护。在处理这类事件和诉讼时，如果有数据这个“老大哥”在身边，收益将会相当可观。

【大数据能拯救生命】

“未来，数据分析和AI技术将能拯救生命，研究疑难杂症并促进医药研发。”

——Franz公司Jans Aasman

好的一面是，医疗保健和安全性将会得到提高。

现在，传统的听诊器已经过时了。数字听诊器已经取而代之。甚至可以用手机应用同步。血糖仪也经历了这样的革新。

十年后，将能在全球范围内提供2亿个无线健康检测仪。这些设备将能向他们的医护工作者汇报病人的状况。除此之外，收集来的数据还能极大的帮助慢性病的深入研究。

MarketPsyche公司也通过5百万条博客、社交平台和推特收集数据，来追踪人们的情绪状态。


英文原文

It took a decade of research before scientists decrypted human DNA for the first time. Today – after 13 years of progress – same work is done within 24 hours

We continuously sharpen data processing tools. Hence， the amount of data has grown drastically over the past ten years. But is there still room for innovation？ Does the future hold new， jaw-dropping revelations？

There’s no need to guess.

Let’s check out what do the biggest data science gurus think on Big Data tendencies in the following ten years， and how will it change the world we know.

Simplicity is the new black！

First of all， data analysis will become more “dummy-friendly”. Business-centric data analysis tools will not require programming skills. Both use and even development will be simple as cake.

Looking for proof？ Don’t take anyone’s word for it.  Just take a look at the kind of tools major brands introduce to the market today.

Microsoft has recently announced new features for their Power BI. Salesforce implements a business analysis app builder. Both corporations adapt their Big Data managing platforms for non-developer’s usage.

Fortune telling with the magic ball of Big Data？

“The next decade is to become a revolution for data-driven research， and proclaims the ‘end of theory’.” – Duncan Watts， analyst at Microsoft.

The amount of collected data tends to grow exponentially. Thus， event predictions will only get more accurate with time.

Big Data and business intelligence will be routinely used to anticipate everything.

And I mean everything： From diseases outbreaks to stock prices. From the power grid failures to upcoming fashion trends.

We are about to get more precise predictions than ever！ For instance， UPS already uses data from its sensors that are put on critical parts of their truck. They predict mechanical failures this way. And this approach saves the company millions of dollars annually.

You can even regain trust in the weatherman’s word today！ What a time to be alive.

Google already has done the forecasting “test drive”. They have analyzed search keywords by location， and determined which US regions are about to have flu spikes. Their prediction was spot-on！

And there’s still the experiment from Indiana University we should keep an eye on. They’ve predicted stock market changes for the next three days with 87% accuracy. All calculations were based on tweets！

“Big Data market will be expanding with an impressive annual growth rate of 23%. US business will be saving up to 60 billion dollars annually.” – IDC experts.

Real time Data Analysis

“Streaming systems and real-time data analysis will be “the must have” in businesses of any kind” -Phu Hoang， CEO at DataTorrent.

Enterprises and companies will integrate streaming analytics tools like Storm， Spark， Apache Kafka， to manage their data infrastructure. “Data Jedis” are expected to be among the hottest employees on a labor market. Matt Bencke from Spare5 and Kelly Stirman from MongoDB sure believe so.

JavaScript will shortly take full care and custody of Big Data visualisation. We mostly rely on R and Python today. But changes are coming along the need for simplicity and web availability.

Jane Swanson from DataScience has already pointed that more and more open source projects appear to be developed in web languages. Thus， Big Data science will be adapted to JavaScript.

Artificial Intelligence will get something to think about

“Big Data will cause the new shift in AI technologies” - An unanimous claim from  IBM， Oracle， and Google scientists.

Scientists expect widespread implementation of software-based smart machines， virtual personal assistants， smart advisors and autonomous vehicles.

Siri， Cortana and Google Now got smarter and more autonomous through constant “food for thought”. The more you use them， the more they know you， your habits， desires and preferences.

Just think about the following：

Toyota invested as much as one billion dollars in a five-year AI development project.

General Motors is going to spend $500 million on autonomous driving research.

And there are still Google， Uber， Apple and Tesla with their innovations！

In the future common data processing tasks will rely on：

Machine learning；

Property graphs；

Natural language processing；

Quantum computing.

Intercorporate customer data exchange

“Enterprises will be merging customer data on a global level， savings billions of dollars and gaining ROI” – Jeff Vance

Businesses and startups will be trading data for mutual benefits. You can already see the process of corporate “data symbiosis”， as it evolves in its natural habitat.

For example： IBM has put together the stats from Pacific Gas and Electric company， Honda， and the local climate data. As a result， they’ve spotted out the best places for car charging points.

Inrix combines cellphone data with car movement and predicts traffic jams. Data is then sold to the government.

All major mobile operators sell geolocation data to AirSage. And the company provides real-time traffic reports for more than a hundred US cities.

Your toothbrush knows too much

“Global datafication is coming. And it takes marketing technologies on a whole new level！” - Analysts Viktor Mayer-Schonberger and Kenneth Cukier.

Companies will be hoarding and trading data about every single action of millions of people. That’s the new way of behavioral advertising.

We make their task quite easy. We share our daily activities through Twitter and Facebook， we make Amazon wish lists， and we use geolocation apps. It would be a shame to waste such a klondike of information.

Some US states use smart meters that constantly trace your electricity consumption. Your movements and home activities are easily reproduced step by step with this kind of data， because each electrical device has a different power signal.

Apple has a technology that can track your body temperature， heart rate and oxygen level through something as simple as earbuds.

GreenGoose， a startup in household item manufacturer puts tiny wireless sensors inside their products. And every time you brush your teeth， floss， exercise， those tiny spies collect valuable data.

Alright， this one sounds a bit creepy…

Is it even legal？ Well， people willingly pay for the “privilege” of being tracked. Aforementioned startup has raised $100，000 VentureBeat conference.

“Whether it’s a major business vendor or the government， they will be able to use your data for their benefits， and they will certainly try to.”

- Professor Noah Chomsky.

Most vendors will know your next move before you even think of it. And they’ll have an appropriate service locked and loaded.

That’s some Orwell material， you might think. Then here’s a little story for the most skeptical minds.

Apparently， the Target corporation has calculated which of their female customers are pregnant， based on their purchases. And they’ve congratulated them with coupons for baby products. That’s how a father had learned about his daughter’s pregnancy for the first time， in one case.

“By the end of a decade near the half of all the business ethics violations will be data-related” - Gartner’s analysts.

This creates a new hot trend – user privacy and data protection. Handling issues and lawsuits will be more than profitable with the Big Brother around.

Big Data gains life-saving powers

“In the next years data analysis and AI will help to save lives， study uncommon diseases， and boost the medical research.” - Jans Aasman， Franz Inc.

On a brighter note， it’s expected that we are about to see the rise of healthcare and security.

Today the traditional stethoscope is a relic of the past. It’s replaced with the digital one. It’s even synchronized with a mobile app. Same thing has happened to glucose meters.

20 billion wireless health monitors will be provided by the end of the decade. All over the globe. These devices will report patient’s vitals to their caregivers. Moreover， the collected data will become a huge help in further medical researches of chronical diseases.

MarketPsyche tracks emotional state of population through collecting data from 5 million of blogs， social media platforms， and tweets.


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